Training Update: Pace Calculation

In hopes of clarifying my pace goal, I think I just made things even more complicated.

First, let me share two techniques for pace calculation that have lots of supporters: the McMillan Calculator and the Yasso 800s set. The McMillan Calculator is the simpler of the two: just enter your most recent all-out race time for any distance, select the race you want to do next, and it will calculate what your time will be. So, according to the calculator, if I ran a 27-minute 5K, the calculator tells me that it's reasonable to expect I'd run 4:23:00 marathon. It even tells me that, to do this, I'd need to run each mile in 10:02. The calculator really only works with an all-out effort, though, and I can't remember the last time I raced that way. For the last year or so, when I haven't been too busy falling in the middle of the course, I've tended to enjoy races and not pushed myself to the limit. Not only that, but my last few races were back in early summer, long before I got into the shape I'm in now, so they wouldn't be accurate predictors even if I had run harder. This weekend I plan to do an all-out 10K on my own (or maybe I can convince Ed to come with me and jeer at me to get me to go faster) to see what the calculator tells me. It won't count, technically, but it should give me some idea of where I stand.

The Yasso 800s are a bit more complicated. There is a (hotly debated) theory that the rate at which you can run ten 800-meter intervals in a row corresponds directly with how fast you can run a marathon. So if I were to run ten of them at an average pace of 3:30 (three minutes and thirty seconds), that means I can run a marathon in 3:30:00 (three hours and thirty minutes). Sounds kind of crazy, but several runners I really respect have independently recommended this technique to me. If you use the Yasso set as a training regimen, you're supposed to start off with four 800-meter intervals at your goal time, then add another interval each week until you get to ten. Last night, I used it as a diagnostic, though, and ran all ten. My results were:

3:27
3:26
3:28
3:27
3:27
3:30 (d'oh!)
3:26
3:28
3:25
3:23

Average time: 3:26.70

According to Mr. Yasso, this translates to a marathon of three hours and twenty-seven minutes (I rounded up). I'd love to think I could run one that fast, but it seems to be a bit of a reach. Then again, a lot of runners swear by this method. And I'm not one of those who's better with the short distances - quite the opposite, in fact. Surprisingly, there seems to be very little on the good old Interweb about whether this is a legitimate predictor. (As a public service, I will definitely post about this after my marathon.)

Regardless of whether the set ends up predicting my time, it was a killer workout that has caused me to feel both very accomplished and rather sore today. And there was lots of near-vomiting during the run (stupid lactic acid), though I'm happy to say I held it all in. Ten fast 800s is not a set for the faint of heart, but I think I got a lot out of it, physically at the very least.

So instead of feeling more confident about what pace I should shoot for, I feel even more confused. No matter what my 800 set told me, though, I will not be setting out at the kind of pace I'd need to run a 3:27:00 marathon. I'm better off playing it safe early on and then picking things up, if I can, 18 to 20 miles in.

Pass the Tiger Balm, please.